The historic decision of President Joe Biden to withdraw from the race ahead of November’s election has sent shockwaves around the world, with allies and enemies of the US following events in Washington closely and considering their implications.
At a time of escalating hot and cold wars from Gaza to the Asia-Pacific – with the US heavily involved – the impact of sudden turmoil engulfing the world’s leading power could be felt on the battlefields. And for rival powers, there could be opportunities to exploit.
Russia-Ukraine
Some Russian commentators are celebrating Mr Biden’s withdrawal from the race, suggesting this could throw the administration’s policy on Ukraine into disarray.
“A storm will break out,” predicted hardline nationalist Dmitry Yevstafyev, suggesting this could lead to internal divisions and feuds between politicians, different state agencies, and lobbyists.
The withdrawal of Mr Biden has shown that the US is “not at all interested in the opinion of Europeans, who 100 per cent signed up for Biden and took an oath of allegiance to him,” the pundit added, suggesting that Europe could be left to support Ukraine by itself.
Several Russian commentators also ridiculed the liekly new Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, and predicted that Donald Trump would easily win the election – and then slash support to Ukraine.
“As for what’s going on in Europe right now, I’m going to watch with pleasure,” said political analyst Ilya Smersh. “They are going to be very scared and lonely right now.”
Mykola Bielieskov, a researcher at Ukrainian military think-tank the National Institute for Strategic Studies, expressed confidence that support from the US would remain stable through this period of disruption.
“I am pretty sure that with the available funds, the Pentagon can co-ordinate day-to-day provision of weaponry” without Mr Biden’s involvement, he said. The researcher suggested that it was unlikely that Washington would now take steps such as green-lighting the use of long-range missiles against targets in Russia, although he noted that Mr Biden could now be “more free and flexible.”
Some Ukrainian sources expressed frustration at perceived slow decision-making over weapons supplies from the Biden administration, and voiced hopes that his successor could move faster.
“I really, really hope that whoever replaces the old man in the Oval Office will be smart enough to draw conclusions,” said independent defence correspondent Illia Ponomarenko.
Israeli-Palestinian conflict
Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was expected to reignite his alliance with Trump on his visit to Washington this week, with the Republican nominee believing that he would return to office and subsequently resume a strongly pro-Israel agenda that included moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognising the occupied Golan Heights as Israeli territory in his first term.
But the Israeli leader may now need to tread more carefully, with Mr Biden’s withdrawal appearing to revive the Democrats’ chances of retaining the White House, which could lead to greater pressure on Israel to wind down the war in Gaza and take steps towards peace talks with the Palestinians.
“As Washington is in a political turmoil, [Mr Netanyahu] will have to focus more on Congress and assess carefully the balance of power within the Democratic party, but also between Republicans and Democrats,” said Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House.
Ms Harris will meet the Israeli leader in Washington and is likely to press for a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal before the election that would boost her standing, Mr Mekelberg added.
Times of Israel political correspondent Lazar Barman suggested that Mr Netanyahu would walk a tightrope. “With Trump in attack mode, Netanyahu will have to make sure he doesn’t re-aggravate the former — and quite possibly future — president by seeming too effusive in his praise of Biden and Harris,” he wrote. “On the other hand, the premier has to take care not to be seen by Democrats as endorsing Trump.
Daoud Kuttab, a Palestinian author and political analyst, expressed hope that the Democrat party could begin to change course from its traditionally strong support for Israel.
“A younger candidate more attuned to progressive voices in America and more respectful of international law – especially after the clear advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice – is unlikely to be worse,” he said.
The ICJ ruled last week that Israel’s 57-year occupation of the West Bank and settlements were in breach of international law.
Iran and the ‘Axis of Resistance’
The war in Gaza has spread across the region with the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance’ – including Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen – trading fire with Israel.
The Islamic Republic’s four-decade “Shadow war” with Israel burst into the open in April, when Iran for the first time launched a missile and drone barrage at its enemy after Israel assassinated Iranian military officials in an attack on a consulate building in Damascus, Syria.
The regional war escalated again at the weekend as Israel struck targets in Yemen after a deadly Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv.
With the US distracted and unable to mediate – as it did during the April crisis – there is a risk of a simmering conflict boiling over, suggests Colin Clarke, a specialist on conflict and terrorism at the Soufan Group.
“I’d be concerned that things escalate between Israel and Hezbollah, and with the Biden administration perhaps viewed as something of a lame duck, it could lead tensions to escalate with no credible US interlocutor in the mix,” he said.
Israel could choose to abandon restraints without US pressure, Dr Clarke added. With senior officials having threatened major escalations against Hezbollah and Iran, Mr Netanyahu could “cede ground to some of his far-right allies in government” who are pressing for decisive strikes against Israel’s enemies.
Emergency measures will remain in place, said Dr Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran foreign policy specialist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Mr Biden’s withdrawal “does not mean that communication channels referred to by both Iranian and US official officials are going to be impacted, because they are based on a pragmatic approach of preventing direct conflict,” he said.
But the chances of a deal between the US and Iran over the latter’s nuclear programme and to lower tensions across the region are “lower than ever” due to the “limited bandwidth of the US administration,” Dr Azizi added.
China
Beijing has taken Russia’s position as the US’s chief geopolitical adversary, jousting with Washington for influence from Africa to the Middle East. Tensions have increased with China’s ambition to “reunify” with the self-governed island of Taiwan, which Mr Biden vowed to use military force to protect.
Dysfunction in Washington will be seen as an opportunity to press ahead in the race for influence, suggests Dr Rex Li, a China specialist at King’s College London.
“I think this will make it easier for China to promote an alternative world order,” he said. “China can use this as an example to say ‘if the leader of the free world cannot sort itself out, how much faith can you put in the US-led international order.’”
As the US’s image has taken a battering over its support for Israel’s devastating war in Gaza, China has pushed for peace deals in the Middle East, such as between Iran and Saudi Arabia, positioning itself as a more responsible power, Mr Li added.
China will “continue to put pressure on Taiwan, both economically and militarily,” the professor said, hoping to send the message: “You can’t rely on the US.”