If Donald Trump can forgive his pick for Vice President, JD Vance, for originally calling him an “idiot” and “reprehensible”, Foreign Secretary David Lammy is probably in the clear for his less-than-flattering remarks about the Republican nominee.
Following this weekend’s failed assassination attempt, the idea of Trump as president-in-waiting crystallised around the world. Fist raised, trickles of blood running down his face, with the Stars and Stripes behind him: it was the photo that almost certainly cemented a second presidency. As capitals around the world condemned the attack, they also recognised its political significance.
“It makes the three years between Trump and Biden seem like a decade, after Biden’s recent mis-steps,” one UK Government source said of the photo, pointing to swing voters who could decide the contest. “The conventional wisdom is now that the election is Trump’s to lose as it will bring out the empathy vote in rustbelt America, who may have been tempted to stay at home.”
So how does the new Labour Government, the natural allies of a Democrat administration, handle the all-but-confirmation they will be dealing with Trump come November? Particularly when Lammy has been so spectacularly rude about the man who has an elephantine capacity for grudge-holding.
‘An absolute moron’
As a backbencher, Lammy said of Trump: he is “not only a woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath, he is also a profound threat to the international order”. The current Cabinet haven’t been shy either, calling Trump variously “the worst president in history”, an “absolute moron”, “a profound threat”, “a racist, misogynistic, self-confessed groper”, and “a sociopath.” So far, so damning.
Yet, perhaps surprisingly, Washington insiders appear untroubled by these historic remarks. They say Lammy realised early that a Trump presidency was a possibility and did enough groundwork with Republicans for the early outbursts to become – if not forgiven – then at least politely forgotten at the smart tables in Washington DC or the Hamptons.
Lammy, who introduced Starmer to Barack Obama – the former president is credited with telling the Prime Minister to emote more – has strong connections with Democrats. Even so, the Tottenham MP has privately conceded for over a year that he would have to work with whoever controls the White House and Congress, and earlier this year said so publicly.
Common cause with the Republicans
He has also, correctly, pointed out: “You’re going to struggle to find any politician in the Western world who hasn’t had things to say in response to Donald Trump.”
In May, Lammy spoke at the Hudson Institute in the US where he described himself as a “good Christian” and “small-c conservative” who had common cause with the US Republican Party. He also met senior Trump allies including Republican senators Lindsey Graham and JD Vance, now Trump’s running mate as candidate for vice president.
Vance himself shared much of Lammy’s first impressions of Trump, famously saying in 2016, “I’m a ‘never Trump’ guy. I never liked him,” alongside some choice name-calling – he picked “idiot” and “reprehensible”.
Who is JD Vance?
Vance was born James David Bowman in Ohio, to a mother who struggled with addiction and a father who left the family. Raised by his grandparents “Mamaw” and “Papaw”, he eventually took their name. He served in the marines and eventually became a venture capitalist, crediting his success to the tough love shown by the couple against the poor choices made by other members of his family. His memoir, Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis, was made into a film.
In north London, Lammy and his four siblings were raised solely by his mother, after his father left the family when he was 12 years old. In his 2011 book, Out of the Ashes, part-memoir, part political analysis, Lammy also drew conclusions about how to tackle poverty. He too recommended a form of tough love to counteract the London riots that prompted him to write the analysis: “If parents were allowed to hit their children, the riots wouldn’t have happened.”
One Washington observer points to the fact that while Vance drew a stark Republican conclusion from his tough upbringing, he is nonetheless still a graduate of Yale Law School. Lammy holds a master’s degree from Harvard Law School. “They move in the same circles,” the source said. “No one is worried about Lammy fitting in here. He knows a lot of people from both sides.”
‘Less talk and more delivery’
In fact, there is some evidence the Republicans may favour Lammy over former Conservative foreign secretary David Cameron. Elbridge Colby, tipped to become national security adviser in any Trump administration, has smarted at what he described as Cameron’s “moralising” and “lecturing” of US politicians.
“Based on what I can see, David Lammy is far preferable to David Cameron, obviously,” Colby told Politico in May. “Lammy is laying out a more compatible vision to what people like me are talking about, which is an increase in defence, spending more of a UK focus on Europe. I’d rather have a lot less talk and haranguing and more delivery.”
Trump also took Starmer’s call after the shooting, the second from an international leader after Canada’s Justin Trudeau.
Come a Republican administration, the Labour government could also lean on the only people in the country who can impress Trump – the Royal Family. In 2019, as Prince of Wales, Charles hosted then-president Trump and his wife Melania for afternoon tea at Clarence House during a Nato summit in London. The now-King has written privately to Trump after the events of the weekend, Buckingham Palace said.
A state visit could be offered or return match requested of the new administration, but any invitation is unlikely to be sent until the new resident of the White House is in place.
Unparalleled connections
There is also the delicate issue of who Starmer appoints to be the UK’s next ambassador to Washington, after the new administration rejected former prime minister Rishi Sunak’s choice of Tim Barrow, the current National Security Advisor. The likelihood of a Trump presidency is already informing thinking in diplomatic circles and No 10.
Meanwhile, complicating matters is Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, who is traveling to the Republican Convention this week to express his support for Trump. Farage has argued (and doubtless will keep on doing so) that he has unparalleled connections with the Republican nominee and should be offered a bigger role in cajoling his friend. Lammy will be able to show he has made the right connections already.
Even so, don’t expect special favours for the Labour Government. Vance is still a Republican. Just last week at a National Conservativism Conference, Vance half-jokingly asked his audience: “What is the first truly Islamist country that will get a nuclear weapon? Maybe it’s actually the UK, since Labour just took over.”
More worrying for Lammy and Starmer are Trump’s plans for Nato. He would be likely to unwind much of what the defence alliance agreed last week in Washington. The Brits will be looking at remarks from Trump’s combative former ambassador to Germany, Ric Grenell, who is a likely pick for secretary of state. He has said he wants incoming Nato secretary general Mark Rutte replaced because the Netherlands, his home country, doesn’t spend at least two per cent of its GDP on defence.
China and Iran
Trump and Vance are also likely to pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky to settle with Vladimir Putin and slow down Ukraine’s path to Nato membership. Meanwhile they are likely to urge European allies to be more self-reliant and to focus on the threat from China and Iran.
Left-leaning movements have been watching in dismay as Trump has topped US polls without a break all year. The failed assassination attempt is already being seen by some supporters as divine intervention and will ensure his vote turns out in November.
Even so, he is still a divisive figure in the US, with the “Never Trump” brigade still vocal and numerous. American strategists point to the final months of the presidential campaign as the most significant. In these races there’s a reason “October Surprise” is a popular phrase.