SNP leader-in-waiting John Swinney wants his party to believe that he is the person who can lead Scotland to independence.
Asked on Sunday if he was confident that he could finally deliver the long-cherished dream of Scottish nationalists, Mr Swinney told the BBC: “I am, yes.”
In reality, Mr Swinney knows the cause has reached an impasse. The 2022 Supreme Court dismissal of the bid to hold a second referendum has left the party without a clear way forward.
The polling shows that voters in Scotland have been firmly deadlocked on the question for several years now, remaining roughly 50-50 throughout the turmoil of Brexit and Covid. There is little on the horizon that would seem likely to shift the dial.
In a noticeable change in tone from Humza Yousaf, who quit as SNP leader and First Minister, Mr Swinney appears to be realistic about the immediate years ahead.
He refused to repeat Mr Yousaf’s claim that winning a majority of seats at the general election would mean a mandate for another referendum, saying he would focus on a back-to-basics campaign to persuade Scots of independence’s merits.
He also said a “really convincing and demonstrable increase” in polling was needed to push the UK Government into agreeing to another referendum. The SNP veteran told Sky News: “It’s not supported by enough people for it to be a compelling proposition within Scotland.”
Is that sort of attitude good enough for independence activists, inside and outside of the SNP?
Mr Swinney will get the chance to breeze into the top job without a fresh debate on the subject.
An obscure SNP activist called Graeme McCormick threatened to throw a spanner in works by launching a surprise leadership bid.
The activist had attacked the party’s approach to independence at last year’s conference – calling it “flatulence in a trance”.
But Mr McCormick withdraw his bid after a “fruitful” conversation with Mr Swinney on Sunday – a huge relief for the SNP hierarchy.
Aside from his uphill battle on the big constitutional question, Mr Swinney faces a more pressing struggle to win votes in the Scottish Parliament while leading a minority government.
The pro-independence Scottish Greens remain bitter at the manner in which the coalition deal was ripped up under Mr Yousaf, and will be determined to show their own voter base that they are not at Holyrood just to nod through SNP policies.
Mr Swinney said on Sunday that he could “probably” win the support of the unionist parties – Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats – to pass budgets and get other things done.
But their antipathy towards the SNP, and their desperation to get the nationalists out of office, is now fiercer than under previous periods of minority government.
So if Mr Swinney does get his speedy coronation, or whether he has to spend three weeks in tedious debates with an unknown activist, he knows his main job is running a competent government. The push for independence will have to wait until credibility is restored.