Sir Keir Starmer came to Washington on the wings of victory, which is always an agreeable way for a PM to arrive at his first international summit. The press plane was packed and reporters jostled for space at the makeshift Number 10 briefing centre to hear the new leader open his transatlantic dialogue.
The football gods were smiling on the newcomer too – nothing heralds the start of an era like England winning a place in the Euros final. Being a “lucky general” is, however, the result of lots of slog beforehand, so the PM is clearly enjoying being the face of the UK after so long watching others on the modest British Airways version of Air Force One.
Starmer is admittedly not a naturally relaxed figure – he has a “resting worry face” – and summit successes thrive on confidence. But the difference between his body language and tension level when I accompanied him last September for his first big outing at a conference in North America, and the figure looking magisterially cheerful next to a strained President Joe Biden, is striking.
While the UK focuses on the glad, confident morning vibrations of Labour’s win and the renewal of Parliament, the new Prime Minister has arrived here slap bang in the middle of a crisis about Biden’s immediate future – and an increasingly shaky outlook for Democrats when it comes to defeating Donald Trump in November.
It remains uncertain which way the wind will blow on this. Tonight Starmer will hold his closing press conference, showcasing the new friends and consolidated alliances he has made on the Nato stage.
The laser focus of American politics, business and diplomacy however will be firmly on Biden’s appearance before the press, after the President has effectively been forced by his lamentable debate appearance to prove that he is compos mentis to continue in office, under an onslaught of calls (including from his starriest supporter, George Clooney) for his head to roll.
So the first US ‘road trip’ for Starmer is a second order event here. Starmer and the UK embassy team behind his visit must also be wondering whether this could be the last time the two meet. The exchange of formalities – on the special relationship being “closer than ever” (no one ever arrived in office saying it was getting less close), on sticking with the “whatever it takes” plan on Nato, and the UK’s role in AUKUS security pact – was nothing new.
Starmer is too cautious to want to be seen to depart from the formalities of the last government’s transatlantic stance, while Biden is distracted by the imminent threat to his presidency, and so the President adopted a rictus-like grin alongside Starmer. These were not the moments of spontaneity prime ministers hope will seal their deal with the US leadership.
The reiteration of a “cast iron commitment to reach the 2.5 per cent defence spending target as a share of GDP” certainly disappointed EU countries like Poland and the Baltic states, who feel, as one senior figure in Warsaw put it, “like the Brits are telling everyone to put their hand in their pocket but keep losing their own wallet”.
My own interview with the outgoing head of the British army, General Patrick Sanders, raises his worries that dawdling at this level is dangerous – and that a push for an even higher target of 3 per cent should be in sight as the global threat level rises.
In another week, this havering by Starmer might easily have caused some difficulty as a summit opener too. The US is not keen on allies who tell others to raise their spending but drag their heels.
Fortunately for Starmer, the Biden administration does not have the bandwidth to go too hard on an ally – though that certainly will not impede Donald Trump’s noisy crusade to have Europe lessen its reliance on US dollars for its defence.
Rarely has a summit held at the heart of American power had such a vast elephant in the living room. For now there is alignment between two centre-left leaders, both of whom represent positions in their parties which are not those of radical overhaulers in the manner of Blair, Clinton or Obama, and both having risen by carving out the radical Left of their respective progressive movements.
As one Starmer lieutenant put it tartly, when an earnest American colleague asked about the “return of Jeremy Corbyn”, winning in his Islington seat after being exiled from Labour: “We can live with that if his political address is in N1 and Keir’s is 10 Downing Street.”
But this balance may not prevail beyond the elections in November. The default politics of Starmer and Biden – closening ties with the EU (by what means and to what extent remains shrouded in Channel fog), investments driven by a green tech agenda and forthright, costly support for Ukraine – might soon be yesterday’s news.
The outlook for Starmer’s next American adventure will change fast if Biden or his luckless successor stays and loses to Trump. It’s become a saying in defence circles that the real point of this outing is to “Trump proof” the Atlantic alliance.
As Starmer waves goodbye to head back to the land where football still means “soccer”, the special relationship may indeed be close. But it is a transatlantic dance on the thinnest of political ice.
Anne McElvoy is host of the Power Play podcast for POLITICO