State school headteachers fear that they could be left with larger classes because of Labour’s plan to introduce 20 per cent VAT on private school fees, i has been told.
Pepe Di’lasio, leader of the largest state secondary heads’ union – the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL) – said that increased class sizes could be one of the “unintended consequences” of Labour’s flagship policy.
The union, which also represents some private school leaders, is calling for more research into the consequences of the private schools tax plan, before it is implemented.
Its intervention follows comments on the impact of the policy yesterday from Labour shadow Attorney General Emily Thornberry, who said that “it would be fine if we have to, in the short term, have larger classes”.
This morning both Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and shadow Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson said Ms Thornberry was incorrect, as they sought to shut down the row.
But now Mr Di’lasio has said the headteachers are worried about the impact of the policy on class sizes and was clear that he was speaking on behalf of his state school members.
“There remains to be a lot of questions around the proposed policy from Labour about the unintended consequences. One of them could well be increased class sizes,” he told i.
He said: “I would want everyone involved to be able to consider individuals at the heart of that. Both young people in large classes but also professionals who are in the middle of all this. We want to make sure we do whatever we can to support them through what will be challenging changes to the way in which people are having to work.”
He added: “We’ve been asking for there to be more research in the consequences of policy and we’re still yet to see the evidence of what might be happening as a result of them implementing it. That would need to be considered carefully before it was implemented.”
The union has more than 25,000 school leader members and also represents some state primary heads.
Mr Di’lasio said class sizes had “grown” over the last decade due to funding pressures on schools, and that headteachers would be “making decisions over where they can reduce them, but also where they can afford them to be for them to be bigger”.
He added: “Everyone’s worried about the implications for not having enough money to do the job in the way that you want to be able to do it, and with all of that, you’re having to make difficult decisions. One of those may be on class sizes.”
Asked whether his members feared increased class sizes could be one of the unintended consequences of Labour’s VAT policy, he said: “Yes, definitely.”
Labour’s leader has said the party is planning to add 20 per cent VAT to independent school fees as “as quickly as possible” if it is elected, to raise an estimated extra £1.6bn for pupils in the state sector.
But critics have warned the policy could prompt an exodus of pupils from private schools as some parents will no longer be able to afford the fees, adding pressure onto an already stretched state sector.
Asked about Ms Thornberry’s comments, this morning Ms Phillipson told Times Radio: “I am afraid that just wasn’t right.
“Actually what we are seeing across the state sector is a falling number of pupils in our classrooms because of the falling birth rate, and there are fewer young people arriving at school.
“So, actually, we are going to be in the position pretty soon – and it is already the case in places like London – where schools are merging and closing because of falling numbers.”
However, asked whether falling birth rates had meant falling class sizes, Mr Di’Lasio told i: “That’s not something that we’re we’re hearing from our members at the moment.
“I know that she’s right in that there are falling birth rates, but birth rates are very geographical. So there will be some schools that still got large intakes, that are oversubscribed, and there will be other schools, perhaps in rural areas, that have got much smaller class and will be struggling with their budgets right now.”
The Labour leader said Ms Thornberry was “wrong” to claim that the party’s private school tax change would mean bigger state school classes.
Much of the debate over Labour’s policy centres around how many pupils will switch from private to state schools because their parents can no longer afford fees because of it. It is a key question because if there is an exodus of former fee-paying pupils then the cost of educating them in the state sector would eat into the £1.6bn Labour had said it could raise from the tax.
On Monday morning, Ms Phillipson cited a more conservative estimate from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), which she said predicted “our policy would raise £1.3bn to £1.5bn net”. Sir Keir said VAT on private school fees would be enough to fund Labour’s childcare policy, as well as hiring 6,500 new teachers.
Last week, i revealed that a claim that 224,000 independent school pupils would leave the sector because of the policy had been dismissed by the consultants who produced the research it was based on.
They said the figure was “too high” and based on findings that were “not statistically representative”.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has also raised concerns about the suggestion that 42 per cent of pupils would leave private schools because of Labour’s tax, describing it as “incredible”.
Luke Sibieta, an IFS research fellow who has looked into the impact of the policy, said that the evidence available suggested it would lead to a fall in private school rolls of no more than 7 per cent, or 40,000 pupils.
Labour was contacted for a response to ASCL’s comments.
The Conservatives seized on Ms Thornberry’s comments, with Education Secretary Gillian Keegan saying: “Labour admitted their tax raid will lead to larger classes in state schools, punishing children to pay for their plans.”
She claimed they showed “it’s also our children who will be impacted by Labour’s politics of envy”.
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