Conservative MP Suella Braverman is expected to quit the the party and join Nigel Farage’s Reform UK later this year, according to sources in both parties.
The right-wing former home secretary is struggling to command enough support to run for the Tory leadership when the race officially kicks off next week, after key allies abandoned her fledgling campaign.
She may even face the ignominy of failing to secure the numbers to get on the ballot paper as support within the parliamentary party leeches away to other right-wing candidates.
“We expect her to take a tilt at the Tory leadership and then come over to us, perhaps in the autumn around conference time,” a Reform source said. “She’ll fit in well.”
A senior Tory source told i: “There’s now so much antagonism towards Suella Braverman among MPs that there is now a generally held view that she will defect.
“If she does, it will be a clear admission that she could not win the leadership and does not have the support of any MPs in the party.”
Ms Braverman, MP for Fareham and Waterlooville, denied the claim. A spokesman said: “Suella has only recently been elected as a Conservative MP and has been a Conservative Party member for three decades.”
Previously she has argued the Conservatives “need to” find a way of working with Reform, saying she would “welcome” Farage into the party, a stance other Tories view with disdain.
Her controversial interventions on homelessness and on LGBT+ rights have seen the tide retreat on any support she may once have enjoyed.
“Suella is not going to become leader – at least, not of the Tories,” an ally of Opposition Leader Rishi Sunak told i. A former minister added: “Suella is more likely to become leader of Reform than of us!”
Ms Braverman’s spokesman said she “is very grateful for all the support and encouragement that she has been receiving from colleagues and members around the country.”
Ms Braverman is struggling to command enough support to run for the Tory leadership (Photo: Andrew Matthews/PA)
The main beneficiary of her evaporating support is Robert Jenrick, the former immigration minister who has absorbed around five of the seven MPs who might once have supported her. He is supported by Danny Kruger and former chief whip Mark Spencer and is picking up the bulk of support from among the “moderate right” in the party, according to an ally.
Candidates for the Tory leadership spent this week taking soundings from the 121 MPs who survived the election, filling in spreadsheets to assess whether they have a realistic shot at winning.
They also need to raise funds to pay for staff, literature, and online campaigns. The party also charges them just for standing – around £125,000 in 2022 – to pay for hustings around the country.
The leadership contenders were waiting for the resolution of a squabble between the 1922 Committee – the Conservatives’ backbench panel – and the party’s board of directors over the timing and rules for the party’s leadership contest.
The 1922 Committee, chaired by MP Bob Blackman, wants a longer campaign so the party could spend time debating why it lost the election. The board of directors, mindful of dwindling funds, wanted the matter wrapped up more quickly.
An MP who lost his seat at the election said the Tory party was facing a “Gerald Ratner moment,” after the jeweller who scored a spectacular own goal by describing his stock as “crap”. The party needs a longer period of time to reflect on its wipeout, they said.
Another, current, Tory MP agreed with that analysis. “We are a business selling something people don’t want to buy,” they told i.
“People vote in a different way now. If they are concerned about, say rivers, they may look at that issue and then choose a party; they might think, ‘Oh, the Lib Dems are talking about sewage and they seem quite nice, I’ll support them.’ We need to think about what we mean locally; we need to win back grassroots support.”
While some are gloomy that the party could remain in opposition for a decade, others say reports of the death of the party have been greatly exaggerated.
Optimists point to how after the Liberal Democrats were wiped out in 2015, the party’s membership numbers rose as supporters worried about it disappearing entirely.
Some Conservatives disagree that the party should take a long time to reflect, drumming their fingers at how long it is taking the race to even start. “We’ve got a set of locals [elections] in 10 months, for goodness’ sake, we need to get on with it,” said one Tory campaign manager.
The 1922 Committee has also been debating the threshold number of MPs a candidate will need in order to stand for the leadership.
When Mr Sunak and Liz Truss went head to head in 2022, MPs initially needed the support of 30 colleagues to get on the ballot. At a meeting this week, one Tory MP suggested the number should be as low as two to encourage a wide range of entrants, although others expect the number to be around 12.
As the leadership candidates take soundings from their colleagues, their staffers are making notes too, dissecting behaviour. While neither Ms Braverman or Mr Jenrick have officially announced their leadership bids, they were the first to appear on TV and in newspapers to offer their analysis of where the party went wrong.
“Jenrick and Suella looked crass by jumping too soon,” a source from a rival camp said. “They clearly got it in to their heads that this was going to be a quick contest, but it isn’t.”
After the starting gun is officially fired, expect another former home secretary, Priti Patel, to be one of the first to declare. She has formed a campaign team funded by Tory donors who include former advisers and Conservative staff. MPs Greg Smith and Saqib Bhatti are seeking support for her.
She also spent some of the election campaign offering help to Conservative colleagues around the country.
“Priti is running,” a source said. “She will run on a ticket of holding the party together, reconnect with the membership and get CCHQ fighting fit again.”
Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) has been criticised for not being ready for 2024’s election campaign and running a lacklustre online performance. The new party leader will also have to swell the grassroots who have abandoned the party in droves.
Who could be the new party leader?
Tom Tugendhat
The former security minister, 51, previously lost the leadership race against Liz Truss, during which he pitched himself as offering a “fresh start” and to “bridge the Brexit divide”. An ex-Army officer, he is on the left wing of the party, which could prove a problem with more right-leaning grassroots members but might appeal to centre ground swing voters.
Sugar-addict Mr Tugendhat voted Remain during the Brexit referendum and was highly critical of the Nato withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021.
James Cleverly
An MP since 2015 and the first black foreign secretary, Cleverly served in the cabinets of Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, frequently sent out on the airwaves to defend the government. Miffed when shunted sideways by Sunak’s decision to bring back David Cameron as foreign secretary, as home secretary he nonetheless took on and delivered – as much as was possible – the Rwanda policy.
The 54-year-old attracted criticism when he told LGBT+ footballs fans to be respectful at the Qatar World Cup. He denied making derogatory comments about Stockton-on-Tees in the Commons and apologised for joking about spiking his wife’s drink at a Downing Street reception.
Kemi Badenoch
The ex-business secretary, 44, is seen as a frontrunner among the right of her party and has consistently attracted high approval ratings among party members in surveys conducted by Conservative Home. As minister for women and equalities, her uncompromising stance on trans rights has made her attractive to the right, but she upset some Brexiteers by ditching a promise to automatically scrap up to 4,000 EU-era regulations.
Priti Patel
Patel, 52, served as international development secretary under Theresa May, but quit amid controversy over unauthorised meetings with Israeli officials. As Boris Johnson’s home secretary, she concluded a migrant returns deal with Albania and Serbia, and signed the deal with Rwanda to send asylum seekers to the country – since ditched by Labour. She was also found to have broken rules on minsters’ behaviour, although denied bullying allegations made by civil servants.
As housing secretary under Boris Johnson, he accepted he acted unlawfully when approving a £1bn east London housing development. The timing of the decision meant Conservative Party donor Richard Desmond avoided paying around £40m. Mr Jenrick accepted his decision was unlawful but denied any bias.
He also made headlines for instructing painting over murals of cartoon characters at a reception centre to welcome child asylum seekers in Dover.
Suella Braverman
Rishi Sunak sacked Ms Braverman, 44, as home secretary in 2023 after she accused the police of political bias over pro-Palestinian marches, but she continued to make incendiary speeches, describing them as “hate marches” while claiming Islamists and extremists were “in charge now”.
It was the second time she had left that role, following her resignation in October 2022 after sending an official document from her personal email. She rebelled over the Rwanda deportation scheme, a plan once described as her “dream” to deliver. She stood in the 2022 leadership contest but was eliminated in the second round of voting among Tory MPs.
Mel Stride
Another government loyalist,the former work and pensions secretary, 62, has hosted a couple of dinners to assess whether he has enough support to stand and concluded he will, according to an ally. “Mel is a serious candidate and has the heft and gravitas to be a fantastic leader of the opposition and bring together the party as well as anyone can,” a source said. While popular, he might have left his lobbying efforts too late. “Tom has scooped up the support Vickie and Mel would need to run already,” an aide from a rival camp said.
