These days, Labour having a good night at local and by-elections is so commonplace, it’s become almost boring. We know that the Tories will get a kicking and that Labour will enjoy some sort of record swing. And yet the media (of which I am a member) must find some mild peril. Otherwise, it’s just dull.
That’s why, despite the Tories consistently tanking in the polls, we buy into their expectation management spin, which has tried to make everything hinge on Ben Houchen holding on to Tees Valley – even though he won the mayoralty last time with 73 per cent of the vote. We must pretend there is a world in which Rishi Sunak stops flatlining, opens his eyes, leaps up and moonwalks across the operating theatre.
There is no question that Labour had a good night so far. Winning Blackpool South with a humdinger of a swing; gaining control of Redditch, Thurrock, Rushmoor and, perhaps most symbolically, Hartlepool council – it all points to general election success.
When Labour lost the Hartlepool by-election in 2021, it was such a low for the party and for Starmer personally. I remember messaging with him, and he was under no illusion about how bad things were for him. Many of us feared that Boris Johnson would be in power for another decade and that nothing would change for Labour.
But Starmer has proved that you can turn a failing party around. Yes, the Tories have helped considerably by shooting themselves in both feet and every limb going, and yes Starmer is one lucky general (in England and Scotland). But political luck is about hard work and preparation, meeting those moments of opportunity and converting them, and not missing an open goal. So he deserves a huge amount of credit.
That doesn’t mean the path ahead is an easy one.
People are turning away from the Tories in their droves and Reform is playing a useful role. But there should also be questions about the voters who are turning away from Labour and why. Strategists will want to examine low turn out too. Yes, local elections are not that exciting for your average human being, but is there something more – an apathy towards Labour from certain voters perhaps?
The conflict in Gaza is clearly a factor, though some Labour insiders previously dismissed concerns about this. Despite making solid gains, the party lost councils seats in areas with significant Muslim populations, including losing control of Oldham in Greater Manchester (although Labour has been losing seats there for a while) and seats in Elswick (Newcastle upon Tyne). The collapse of the Muslim vote in the Birmingham area is also likely to hinder the party in unseating Andy Street as the Conservative Mayor of the West Midlands, although the result will not be known until tomorrow.
Senior Labour figures including Pat McFadden, who is running the election strategy, concede that the crisis in the Middle East has been an “issue” for the party, adding: “With so many innocent people being killed I’m not surprised people have strong feelings about it.” They do, but they also have strong feelings about how Starmer initially handled the topic, especially in that now infamous LBC interview which was not properly corrected until much later.
Scottish Leader Anas Sarwar, who called for a ceasefire earlier than Starmer, also said: “We recognise that there are some challenges.” It will also be interesting to see how Sadiq Khan’s vote is affected by Gaza when his results come in tomorrow afternoon.
There will be some in the party who will counsel taking a hardline stance and will privately argue that losing some of the “Muslim vote” in safe Labour seats is nothing to fret about. But there are many others within Labour who will feel anxious about this development on several levels. They will worry about their own seats.
If Gaza continues without any breakthrough on a peace deal and the death toll continues to rise, this is not just a “Muslim” problem. As we are seeing in America, whether you agree with them or not, a whole generation of young people are becoming politicised by events in the Middle East. Joe Biden supporters fear that Donald Trump could win because young progressives will vote for independents.
The chances of Starmer losing to Sunak are tiny, but this issue could make life harder for Labour chiefs, who are still nervous that everything could go wrong in a short election campaign. They don’t want Gaza to be an issue. They fear attacks from the right if they are seen to be too sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. And they fear the retribution from progressives for admitting that. They will also of course want to be mindful of how the Jewish community will feel after the horrors of 7 October and the Labour Party’s recent history involving antisemitism.
This issue isn’t easy for Labour and it’s a sign of how tricky foreign policy will be if they win power. David Lammy has written recently about “Progressive Realism” when it comes to geopolitics, but how will that work on the ground, where emotion and values matter to Labour voters?
Labour must show some humility and acknowledge the pain and anger that many Muslims and others feel. That doesn’t mean giving any one group a blank cheque on policy, but it does mean proper dialogue, engagement and respect – particularly when forces like George Galloway want to stir things up. It means talking to the Muslim voices and networks within the Labour movement and beyond. It also means taking inter-faith and community relations seriously – not reaching for them when things are at a crisis point.
The issue of Gaza and the loss of the Muslim vote will not take the shine off what will be another excellent set of results. But it should serve as a warning of what could lie ahead and Labour should want to build a broad, good faith coalition across society.
It’s not healthy for a party on the cusp of power to already start taking votes for granted. Laying the groundwork now for better relations can only help Labour in the future.