The Tories could win just 66 seats in the general election – their worst electoral performance ever – the first MRP poll of the campaign has suggested.
The analysis by Electoral Calculus, which was published on Friday by GB News, predicts the Conservatives could lose most of their seats, and could have below 100 after the election.
The poll, of 10,000 people, also predicts Labour will secure 476 seats and the Lib Dems win 59.
MRP stands for multi-level regression and poststratification. The polling method has been used to successfully predict the last two British general elections.
i takes a look at the Conservative Cabinet members who could lose their seats if the prediction becomes a reality.
Penny Mordaunt
Losing to: Labour
Constituency: Portsmouth North
Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, who garnered international attention for her sword-carrying role at the coronation, has held her seat since 2010.
Considered a swing seat, it was held by Labour from 1997 to 2010 but now looks likely to return to the party.
Despite winning the 2019 election with 61.4% , increasing her majority to 15,780, the MRP poll suggests it will be held by the Labour party.
James Cleverly
Losing to: Labour
Constituency: Braintree
Home Secretary James Cleverly was re-elected to Braintree in 2019 with an increased vote share of 67.5% and an increased majority of 24,673.
Despite predications now showing his seat could be held by Labour, Cleverly told MyLondon that he thinks there will be a “good decent amount” of Conservative candidates elected at the General Election.
Oliver Dowden
Losing to: Labour
Constituency: Hertsmere
Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden was appointed MP of Hertsmere in 2015 and as parliament is dissolved, he is now running again as a candidate.
In 2019, Dowden held a 21,313 majority against Labour candidate Holly Kal-Weiss who only had a 21.7% share of votes.
But the Labour Party could take the role from Dowden after the 4 July elections.
Grant Shapps
Losing to: Labour
Constituency: Welwyn Hatfield
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps took his current seat from Labour in 2005, and most recently held it in 2019 with a majority of 10,995.
According to the MRP poll, the seat may now return to the Labour party.
Speaking to The Telegraph, Shapps stated that the Labour ministers, including David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary can’t be trusted on defence.
Gillian Keegan
Losing to: Labour
Constituency: Chichester
Gillian Keegan has served as Secretary of State for Education since 2022 and has insisted that she will stand as a candidate in the General Election, despite some polls suggesting she could be vulnerable to losing her seat.
Keegan has been the MP for Chichester in West Sussex since 2017 and in 2019 had a 21,490 majority.
When asked if she would follow ministerial colleagues Michael Grove and Huw Merriman in quitting frontline politics, Keegan said: “Never. I’ve never thrown in the towel in my life.”
Johnny Mercer
Losing to: Labour
Constituency: Plymouth, Moor View
Johnny Mercer is the Minister for Veterans’ Affairs and has been the MP for Plymouth Moor View since 2015.
Despite his 2019 12,897 majority, Mercer’s seat was previously held by Labour at its creation in 2010 and the party looks set to regain it.
Kemi Badenoch
Losing to: Labour
Constituency: Saffron Walden
Secretary of State for the Department for Business and Trade Kemi Badenoch has held the MP seat for Saffron Walden since 2019.
With a 27,594 majority in the 2019 election, followed by Lib Dems, it now seems that the Labour party are set to take the seat this year for the first time.
Alex Chalk
Losing to: Lib Dem
Constituency: Cheltenham
Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice Alex Chalk won the seat for Cheltenham’s MP in a tight race against the Lib Dems.
With the Tory MP’s decrease to a 981 majority in 2019 compared to 2,569 in 2017, the Lib Dems are coming for Cheltenham after originally holding the seat in 2010.
The Lib Dems recently retained control of Cheltenham Borough Council in May 2024.
Alister Jack
Losing to: SNP
Constituency: Dumfries and Galloway
Secretary of State for Scotland Alister Jack may lose his seat this year against the Scottish National Party.
While having a 1,805 majority in 2019 and a 5,643 majority in 2017, the SNP are looking likely to regain their seat back after winning in 2015.
Simon Hart
Losing to: Plaid Cymru
Constituency: Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Simon Hart the Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury has also served as the Chief Whip of the House of Commons since October 2022.
Although Hart has been the MP for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire since 2010, seeing a 7,745 majority in 2019, the poll has revealed that Plaid Cymru are in the lead this year for their seat.