Every year, tour operators dust off their figurative crystal balls and predict the number of holidays they think they will sell. If they don’t reserve enough flight and hotel capacity to meet demand, they’ll be kicking themselves. Meanwhile, would-be holidaymakers might miss out on preferred accommodation or destination in the scrum and will likely pay more.
If however they add too much capacity, it becomes a buyers’ market, with a potential glut of bargains as travel companies seek to offload unsold stock as departure dates draw closer.
This year, it seems, despite the cost of living crisis, the travel industry feels confident. Companies under the Atol consumer protection scheme arranged licences for about 28 million package holidays in 2019. This year, they are banking on 33 million.
Flight data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows that departures from UK airports for summer 2024, while not quite at 2019 levels, are projected to be 4 per cent higher than last summer, with 282,207 flights versus 2023’s 272,564.
This level of optimism has prompted speculation among travel industry commentators that holiday companies have overreached themselves and there could be a fire sale. But so far, anecdotally at least, it looks like the confidence was well placed.
“When we speak to operators both in mass market and in cruise, a lot of them are relatively well sold for this summer,” says Kelly Cookes, chief commercial officer for Advantage Travel Partnership, a consortium representing 800 independent travel agents in the UK. But she notes that plenty of customers are still playing a waiting game. This comes as the latest ONS inflation data showed slower price rises for package holidays than a year ago.
“People who can are absolutely prioritising their holiday. But there is still a section of the market for which that is not an option – they are waiting to see whether they have got that income and probably what the weather does, too.”
Currently almost half of weekly sales by Advantage travel agents are for holidays departing within 12 weeks – about 5 per cent more than was typical pre-pandemic. Abta, the Association of British Travel Agents, backs up this trend: “We’re seeing reports of strong interest in late booking, with the weather in the UK always an important factor,” a spokesperson told i.
While we may not get the bargain bonanza some predicted, there is plenty of good value still, with large tour operators putting out deals. EasyJet Holidays, for example, has recently reduced the cost for all its 2024 summer holidays. Jet2 Holidays and Tui have also cut prices, with Jet2 offering £200 off bookings for a family of four.
While discounts aren’t as widespread or as deep as might have been expected given the amount of extra capacity, there are still bargains to be had.
So when should late bookers strike? “Any time from now,” says Cookes. “We’ve had our last school break before the summer holidays kick in, so discounts now are as strong as they are going to be. I don’t think they’re going to find much more attractive pricing in the next month or six weeks.”
As for spare capacity: “There are pockets. There’s always a deal to be had,” she adds, stressing that at this stage, flexibility is key.
Where to go
Cirium’s data indicates great capacity for Turkey, with summer flight numbers from the UK 73 per cent above 2019 levels, while Greece is projected to see 37 per cent more. Advantage agrees that these destinations have better availability, and therefore better pricing, than that British favourite, Spain. It also recommends Tunisia.
“We’ve still got a reasonable amount of capacity in Turkey and that’s a great value option in particular for families, albeit hot – it could be mid- to high 30°Cs in some areas,” advises Cookes.
Online travel agent loveholidays has analysed the cheapest average week-long, two-person holiday packages for departures still available this July. Agadir in Morocco tops the board for three-star stays, coming second to Pays de la Loire, France, for four-stars. Dalaman, Turkey leads its five-star chart and hits its top five for three- and four-star breaks. Essaouira, Morocco, is another top-five placing as, more surprisingly at this stage, is Andalucia, Spain.
“There’s a common misconception that booking a last-minute getaway, particularly during peak season, always comes with a hefty price tag,” says loveholidays’ chief marketing officer, Al Murray. “There are still fantastic deals available.”
Loveholidays has seven-nights’ bed and breakfast at three-star Tagadirt Appart-Hotel in Agadir from £209pp on 1 July or from £269 on 29 July for Bournemouth departures, based on two sharing.
In Greece, Tui has a week’s all-inclusive in two double rooms at four-star Aegean Bay, Marmari, on the island of Kos from £3,510 for a family of four (a £368pp saving and incorporating a free child’s place) based on a 30 July departure from Gatwick. A further £100 off is available with a code on its website.
Optimising accommodation
All-inclusives are popular with families, especially when living costs are high, because they enable up-front budgeting. However, Post Office Travel Money reports that many families overspend in these resorts, splashing out on branded alcoholic drinks and a la carte dining.
Advantage advises that late bookers will have more options if they consider a less in-demand budget-friendly option: self-catering.
For this holiday type, it is worth also looking at on-the-ground prices. Post Office Travel Money’s Holiday Money survey 2024 had the Algarve, Sharm el-Sheikh, Sunny Beach (Bulgaria), Marmaris (Turkey) and Paphos (Cyprus) in its top 10 for best local value.
Nature House lists rural self-catering properties in Europe and has available in the Algarve in August. There are several homes with pools in the countryside close to Tavira, such as a villa whose grounds are are home to “birds, bees, butterflies, crickets, frogs, chameleons, goats and cats”. A week’s rental from 25 August costs €1,858 (£1,570) for up to eight guests. The Ria Formosa lagoon and islands are half an hour away. Meanwhile, a loaf of fresh bread in the local supermarket costs as little as 60p, with a bottle of local wine available for £3.
In Spain, outside the school holidays, Ramada Hotel & Suites Costa del Sol near Fuengirola has some last-minute self-catering stays this month at an eye-catching 30 per cent off.
Flight flexing
Naturally, more awkward flight times are cheaper. Looking beyond your nearest airport also widens price options, as does flying from one airport and back to another. In the North, being savvy with the almost month’s difference in school holiday dates either side of the border can mean significant savings.
Cookes explains: “If they’re in Scotland, they might come down to northern England airports to depart before their school holidays kick in and then vice versa if you’re in the North of England once Scottish schools go back.”
Jet2holidays has a week’s self-catering at three-star Granada Park Apartments, Playa De Las Americas, Tenerife from £1,845 for a family of four (a £200 saving plus free child’s place) with 18 August flights from Edinburgh. Newcastle flights cost £779 more on the same day.
Stay longer, or shorter
Seven- and 14-night holidays are the most requested duration, so going against the grain and looking at nine-, 10- and 11-night packages may give you better bargain-hunting potential. Tui is currently offering £100 off selected seven- and 10-night holidays or £150 off selected 11-, 14-, 21- and 28-nighters.
EasyJet Holidays has nine nights’ self-catering at Iztuzu Apart & Villas, Dalaman, Turkey from £461pp, based on two sharing and a 12 July Bristol departures, incorporating a £60 saving.
City alternatives
Some of the late-demand Advantage agents are seeing is for extra-mini-breaks, particularly over the August bank holiday.
But Cookes suggests that city short breaks are also worth considering if your budget doesn’t stretch to a full week in the sun this year.
Porto, Portugal (within daytrip range of beaches along the Costa Verde or south to the dunes of São Jacinto), came third for five-star holidays in loveholidays’ analysis of best July value.
And, because city breaks are more popular in spring and autumn, even week-long August breaks are between £300 and £400 with easyJet Holidays for the likes of Prague, Krakow, Naples, Valencia and Milan.
A room sleeping four at the chic Hotel Kramer in Valencia costs £488pp with flights from Gatwick on 28 August and six nights’ accommodation, through easyJet Holidays. The hotel is 20 minutes from Patacona beach and 15 minutes from the train station, from where it is easy to explore the wider coastline, or head inland to the mountains and valleys of Alicante province.
Shopping around
Naturally, Abta stresses the expertise of travel agents, who are not tied to selling one company’s packages. “Our advice would be to be flexible in your choice of destination and to contact your local travel agent, who will be ideally placed to pick out the best deals and suggest destinations and types of holiday best suited to your tastes and needs.”
Cookes echoes this: “[Agents] know where the capacity is for [packages and] cruises, they know what’s selling well and what might be slower, so they’ll know where the discounts are applying and that moves all the time, particularly at this time of year.”